"Ash78, voting early and often" (ash78)
04/01/2020 at 20:14 • Filed to: None
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"Ash78, voting early and often" (ash78)
04/01/2020 at 20:14 • Filed to: None | 1
| 19 |
I knew it was only a matter of time before well-known victims would start hitting the news feeds. Nobody matters more than anyone else, but high-profile people tend to make it more “real” to a wider audience.
I was just listening to “Stacey’s Mom” on XM yesterday...
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JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/01/2020 at 20:28 |
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Woah, holly shit... Not even an old one... Then again I‘m guessing he smoked a lot of weed and may not have had great lungs... Man, that sucks. His work on Crazy Ex-girlfriend was super (if you haven’t watched it, it’s on Netflix now, and I highly recommend it)... And who will finish the Sarah Silverman musical??
This one just showed up on my Google news feed:
dogisbadob
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/01/2020 at 20:34 |
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NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Boxer_4
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/01/2020 at 21:11 |
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That’s unexpected. Stac y’s Mom was released in 2003 - I was in 3rd grade headed into 4th grade at the time. I forget how I came across it , likely my dad had downloaded it. Anyway, it ended up on some of my mix cds and eventually my first iPod. I remember sharing this song with many of my friends who also liked it quite well.
Also a round that time, there was a girl that a few of us kind-of knew - her name was Stacy and she HATED this song - of course we would play it and/or sing it any chance we got! ( something about how 4th graders can be cruel goes here... )
I was only really familiar with Stacy’s Mom. I’m currently listening to Welcome Interstate Managers for the first time. It’s pretty good so far.
zipfuel
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/01/2020 at 21:12 |
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Oh no, I was actually wondering last week if
indie rockers with their constant travel and generally unhealthy lifestyle would be more prone to this. I didn’t know he wrote the “that thing you do” song but doesn’t surprise me at all they were a clever band.
Just Jeepin'
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/01/2020 at 21:17 |
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John Prine was in critical condition last I saw a headline. I haven’t gone looking for more information.
McMike
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/01/2020 at 21:20 |
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Dude produced and wrote a LOT of stuff. Movies, TV, Radio, Broadway... He won Emmys, a Grammy, and was nominated for an Oscar and an Tony.
Guilty pleasure track*
*Shit, the whole soundtrack is a guilty pleasure. Produced by Babyface, and featured Kay Hanley from Letters to Cleo, performign songs written by Adam Duritz , Matthew Sweet , Jane Wiedlin, and Babyface.
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Ash78, voting early and often
> Just Jeepin'
04/01/2020 at 21:34 |
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Wow, I hadn’t heard that...
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JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t
> Just Jeepin'
04/01/2020 at 21:35 |
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I mean, at least John Prine is old, so as much as it sucks, he's in an expected risk group... I heard he was getting better, but that was yesterday...
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Ash78, voting early and often
> McMike
04/01/2020 at 21:36 |
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It’s sort of like Ric Ocasek or Stewart Copeland, where you mostly know about their main bands but forget the dozens or hundreds of other things they’ve done over the years.
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Just Jeepin'
> JawzX2, Boost Addict. 1.6t, 2.7tt, 4.2t
04/01/2020 at 21:38 |
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Friend of mine lost a neighbor. Good health, 52.
I think we’re making too many assumptions about how old you have to be to be at risk, at least speaking as a 49-year-old.
facw
> Just Jeepin'
04/01/2020 at 22:03 |
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This date is a bit stale at this point but:
So yeah maybe only 2% of people in their 50s die, and if we assume there are unknown cases, maybe we say that’s only 0.2%. Sounds low, but there are ~40M Americans in their 50s so you’d be looking at ~80,000-800,000 deaths if everyone got it (obviously the measures we are taking now should prevent that, though numbers from 30-70% have been talked about as realistic, which would mean 24,000-560,000 deaths). That’s very back of the envelope calculation, which ignores a whole bunch of factors, but regardless, the truth is that even low probability events will happen often in a large population.
ttyymmnn
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/01/2020 at 23:03 |
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Add Ellis Marsalis to the list. Ellis was the father of Wynton and Branford Marsalis. He was 85.
promoted by the color red
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/01/2020 at 23:06 |
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Loved his work on
Crazy Ex-
Girlfriend
.
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Ash78, voting early and often
> facw
04/01/2020 at 23:41 |
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And I hate to sound too “ utilitarian” here, but people in their 40s and 50s are often at the peak of their careers AND juggling kids and parents, often at the same time.
In other words, more likely to have people heavily dependent on them across the board.
duurtlang
> facw
04/02/2020 at 05:01 |
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This is a graph for the Netherlands (as I am Dutch). Top is people who are hospitalized, bottom is deaths. Meaning that >~98% of those that die are over 60. ~90% is over 70.
By far most people under 80 who die already had another serious ailment. Meaning that if you are a person under 60 without a lung issue/diabetes/severe obesity/autoimmune disease, your chance of dying of covid-19 is negligible. Not zero, but very small. Fit people in their 60s (and early 70s) don’t have too much to worry about either.
Source of the graph is a Dutch government agency, not some blog.
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facw
> duurtlang
04/02/2020 at 07:15 |
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And you’ve missed the point. Younger people are dying, even if it is rare. You also have the issue that even people who don’t die may still need to be hospitalized consuming scarce resources and thus causing others to die.
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Ash78, voting early and often
> duurtlang
04/02/2020 at 09:05 |
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This is the ultimate test of how much society is willing to give up on behalf of the vulnerable. That question is often associated with socialistic government policies, but on a personal level nobody is really saying “Yes, I’ll let my grandmother die if it means my kids can go to school.”
A defining moment for society, for sure.
Mental exercise: If this disease killed mostly people under 30 — especially young children — how different would our collective response look?
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duurtlang
> Ash78, voting early and often
04/02/2020 at 11:01 |
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I’m not sure about the US, but here the vulnerable (so mostly the old and the non-corona-sick) are quarantined much more severely than the rest of us. It is my grandmother’s 92nd birthday today. She broke her hip in January 2020, a few days before my grandfather died, and currently lives in a nursing home. Two of here children and a few grandchildren of hers went to the garden of her nursing home today. The caretakers placed her next to a window. My family members sung her happy birthday from outside. They were not allowed inside. Rightfully so, however painful it was. And it was painful.
In a case of a pandemic like this you need a compromise. A compromise between short term individual health and long term societal well being. You cannot protect everyone to the best of your medical ability and pay for this protection for months on end. That’s impossible.
You cannot put the whole society in quarantine for months. The whole economy will collapse, and if it will collapse we cannot take care of the sick any more. Not properly.
If I will get infected I will have mild symptoms (probably). If my grandma will get infected she will die (probably). So what do we do? First, get some breathing room with brood quarantines (like we have now, here). Second, isolate the vulnerable and take good care of their needs (and those of their caregivers). Third, let the non-vulnerable get back to keeping the economy alive. We have to get through this for roughly a year, until the vaccine will be ready.
That’s how I see these things.
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Ash78, voting early and often
> duurtlang
04/02/2020 at 11:21 |
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That’s pretty much my approach. I wrote the following a couple weeks ago and today I would probably edit it a bit (to sound less “harsh”)...but the sentiment is there. At some point we’ll reach a place where the vulnerable must remain semi-isolated, while everyone else will be free to take their chances. It can’t be an “all or nothing” policy for too much longer or we’ll basically lose restaurants, hotels, airlines, and cruises for a long time, maybe forever.
https://oppositelock.kinja.com/a-modest-proposal-for-phase-2-of-social-distancing-1842415921
For now everyone in the US (mostly on a state-by-state basis, since we operate more like the EU than like an single country most of the time) is keeping the same distances and quarantine, but it’s primarily up to personal responsibility right now. The elderly can still do anything they want, but they know it’s in their best interest to be prudent.
My grandmother is similarly in a nursing home and is 98. She’s also prone to pneumonia whenever she gets sick. Thankfully she’s still doing well, but living 600 miles away we have not been able to visit in quite a while.